Recent interviews, articles, and talks
Web3—the latest Silicon Valley buzzword (The Economist’s Babbage podcast, February 8, 2022)
Is the promise of Web3 a lot of money for a handful of grifters or a way to return power to the people? Is it a complete reinvention of cyberspace or just another phase of decentralization followed by a new wave of centralization? In this segment of the Economist’s Babbage podcast, host Kenneth Cukier and guests Tim O’Reilly, Benedict Evans, Rachana Shanbhogue, Jutta Steiner, David Rosenthal, Ludwig Siegele, and Tim Cross explore the hype and the potential of a decentralized Web3.
It's Time to Open Big Tech's Financial Black Box (The Information, December 16, 2021)
My op-ed for The Information on why we need improved disclosures by tech companies on how they monetize the data they collect and on the operational metrics that they use to guide. their business decision making. This op-ed summarizes the argument of a much longer report that I co-authored with Ilan Strauss, Mariana Mazzucato, and Joshua Ryan-Collins of University College London, called Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragons: how 10-K disclosure rules help Big Tech conceal market power and expand platform dominance.
Why It's Too Early To Get Excited About Web3 (O'Reilly, December 13, 2021)
I place Web3 in the context of previous bubbles, and ask the question of what will be left behind when the bubble pops. As both Bill Janeway and Carlota Perez have pointed out, there are both productive and unproductive bubbles. In a productive bubble, speculative excess builds out lasting infrastructure that can be capitalized on by the future. Is Web3 like the real estate mortgage bubble that popped in 2009, leaving only destruction in its wake, or like the dotcom bubble, which left a legacy of billions of miles of high speed fiber, data centers, and the infrastructure that led to the subsequent boom. Only time will tell.
Two Economies, Two Sets of Rules (O'Reilly, June 22, 2021)
Why is Elon Musk so rich? The answer tells us something profound about our economy: he is wealthy because people are betting on him. But unlike a bet in a lottery or at a racetrack, in the vast betting economy of the stock market, people can cash out their winnings before the race has ended. A lot falls into place when you realize that there are really two economies at work today: an operating economy in which people have jobs, create products, and deliver services to each other, and a betting economy in which people gamble on the future worth of various financial assets, including company stocks and cryptocurrencies, which may be only loosely tied to the operating economy.This betting economy, within reason, is a good thing. Speculative investment in the future gives us new products and services, new drugs, new foods, more efficiency and productivity, and a rising standard of living. Tesla has kickstarted a new gold rush in renewable energy, and given the climate crisis, that is vitally important. A betting fever can be a useful collective fiction, like money itself (the value ascribed to pieces of paper issued by governments) or the wild enthusiasm that led to the buildout of railroads, steel mills, or the internet. As economist Carlota Perez has noted, bubbles are a natural part of the cycle by which revolutionary new technologies are adopted.Sometimes, though, the betting system goes off the rails.… Silicon Valley is awash in companies that have persuaded investors to value them at billions despite no profits, no working business model, and no pathway to profitability.
Checking Jeff Bezos's Math (O'Reilly, April 2021).
In his final shareholder letter, Jeff Bezos touted the value that Amazon creates for each of the company's stakeholders, including its shareholders, its employees, its customers, and its suppliers. While this is a welcome nod to a fuller stakeholder capitalism, the metrics that Jeff used to measure value creation were different for each group, sometimes ambiguous, and sometimes just plain misleading. In this essay, I use Jeff's letter as the occasion to call for consistent metrics explaining "who gets what and why."
The End of Silicon Valley As We Know It? (O'Reilly, March 2021).
Understanding four trends that may shape the future of Silicon Valley is also a road map to some of the biggest technology-enabled opportunities of the next decades. I take a look at AI in the life sciences, the opportunity of climate change, internet regulation, and our overheated financial markets.
Reimagining Government and Markets (The Bridge: National Academy of Engineering, January 2021).
I've been writing for more than a decade about what government can learn from Silicon Valley. This essay reflects on the urgency of the challenges the world will face over the next 50 years, and the role of Silicon Valley in overcoming them: “The struggles of social media companies notwithstanding, the information management capabilities of the Silicon Valley giants are truly staggering. What if these capabilities could be put to work on stuff that matters more than getting people to click on provocative content and the ads that accompany it? What if government had the kind of capabilities, information flows, and partnerships between humans and machines that distinguish the best of technology companies?”
What's Wrong With Silicon Valley's Growth Model (University College London MPA Lecture, October 2020).
I have recently taken on a side-hustle as a Visiting Professor of Practice at University College London, where I'm leading a research project on rent-seeking algorithms used by the big tech platforms. As part of the job, I gave a lecture to students at the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose. Here are the slides for the long three-part lecture. The slides are fairly self-explanatory, especially if you download the ppt so you can look at the speaker notes, which pretty much recap what I intended to say along with each slide. (I will have to see if there is any video.)
We Have Already Let The Genie Out Of The Bottle (Rockefeller Foundation, July 2020).
In many ways, this piece is a highly compressed recap of one of the central arguments of my book WTF?, that our economy and markets are an example of the same kind of algorithmically-controlled human-machine hybrid that is at the heart of platforms like Google and Facebook. The failures of corporate governance at these platforms are a harbinger of our inability to govern even more powerful algorithmic systems and artificial intelligences in the future. These companies are doing exactly what our financial markets tell them to do; our attempts to rein them in will fail unless we change the objective function of our economic algorithms.
Welcome to the 21st Century: How To Plan For the Post-Covid Future (O'Reilly, May 2020).
This essay uses scenario planning and other forecasting methodologies we use at O'Reilly to reflect on how things might change as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. My main goal was to get people more comfortable with change and to describe a set of useful tools for thinking about it. It's a tutorial on thinking in vectors, watching for news from the future, and developing strategies that will be robust in the face of radically different futures.
Remembering Freeman Dyson (O'Reilly, March 2020).
When Freeman Dyson died at the age of 96 after injuring himself in a fall in the cafeteria at the Institute of Advanced Studies in Princeton, I couldn’t resist adding to the outpouring of appreciation and love that ensued. Freeman has an outsized place in my mind and in my heart for someone whom I met in person fewer than a half-dozen times.
Learning In The Age Of Knowledge On Demand (Edcrunch Moscow, October 2019).
My talk at the Edcrunch Conference in Moscow focused on how learning changes when we can outsource so much of what we need to know to machines. I explore lessons from Uber and Google and show how we are applying them at the O'Reilly learning platform. Our Answers feature was not yet live, nor our acquisition of Katacoda, but you can see how I teased them a bit in the talk. The slides are fairly self-explanatory, especially if you download the ppt so you can look at the speaker notes, which pretty much recap what I intended to say along with each slide.
Antitrust regulators are using the wrong tools to break up Big Tech (Quartz, July 2019).
I take aim at what I call “the illusion of free markets,” in which platforms like Amazon and Google first increase our economic freedom, and then restrict it in pursuit of increased profits. Rather than focusing on breaking up the big platforms, I urge regulators to look more deeply at the way they compete with their ecosystem of suppliers. “These giants don’t just compete on the basis of product quality and price—they control the market through the algorithms and design features that decide which products users will see and be able to choose from. And these choices are not always in consumers’ best interests.”
The fundamental problem with Silicon Valley’s favorite growth strategy (Quartz, February 2019).
This critique of Reid Hoffman's book Blitzscaling became a manifesto against Silicon Valley's quest for monopoly. In it, I lay out an argument for why sustainable growth funded by customers is better for most entrepreneurs (and for society) than winner-takes-all growth funded by a vast influx of capital, why the capital-fueled blitzscaling model will eventually come to an end, and the responsibility of those who do win their way to a monopoly position.
Gradually, Then Suddenly (O'Reilly, January 2020).
A meditation on what an anecdote from Ernest Hemingway’s novel The Sun Also Rises can teach us about technological change. A character named Mike is asked how he went bankrupt. “Two ways,” he answers. “Gradually, then suddenly.” In this New Years piece for oreilly.com, I explore some of the technologies that are having their “gradually, then suddenly” moment.
Shaping the Stories That Rule Our Economy (O'Reilly, September 2018).
My review of Mariana Mazzucato's book The Value of Everything. Mariana's explanation of how economists (and society) have come to see different sectors as the source of value while leaving others out of the accounting has become fundamental to my thinking. Her explanation of how economic rents (excess income derived from control over a limited resource) are overlooked in the diagnosis of inequality has shaped my thinking on antitrust and big tech. Mariana and I have since begun working together to develop a theory of what we are calling “algorithmic rents.”
Evolving the New Economy: Tim O’Reilly and David Sloan Wilson
Evolutionary theory meets artificial intelligence and the management of algorithms (Evonomics, August 2018).
I've become fascinated with the overlap between the ideas of evolutionary biologist David Sloan Wilson and my own thinking about business ecosystems, so I was delighted that he saw the overlaps too. In this conversation, we explore our mutual fascination. David's ideas about altruism and multilevel selection are especially eye-opening as a lens through which to view our businesses, our economy, and human societies.
My book on technology and the future of the economy
In WTF? What’s the Future and Why It’s Up to Us (Harper Business, October 2017), I share some of the techniques we’ve used at O’Reilly Media to make sense of and predict innovation waves such as open source, web services and the internet as platform, and the maker movement. I apply those same techniques to provide a framework for thinking about how internet platforms and artificial intelligence are changing the nature of business, education, government, financial markets, and the economy as a whole.
The book is a combination of memoir, business strategy guide, and call to action. I draw on lessons from Amazon, Google, Facebook, Airbnb, Uber and Lyft to show how those platforms prosper only when they create more value for their participants than they extract for the platform owner. I also explore how, like those platforms, our economy and financial markets have become increasingly managed by algorithms, and how we must rewrite those algorithms if we wish to create a more human-centered future.
I draw business lessons about the rules for success in "the Next Economy" that can come after our current WTF economy. The fundamental design pattern of success with technology is to enable people to do things that were previously impossible. Companies that only use technology to do less by getting rid of people will be surpassed by those who use it to help them to do more.
Archive of interviews/articles
Organized in reverse chronological order within each subject, with a brief extract from each piece so you can get the flavor without actually following each link.
- O’Reilly history, business model, and values
- Editorial philosophy
- Antitrust, algorithms, and the economy
- Imagining and forecasting the future
- From the WTF Economy to the Next Economy
- Government as a platform
- Design and UI for a sensor-enabled world
- Web 2.0, Big Data, and the Internet Operating System
- Data and the future of healthcare
- Open source software
- Software and business method patents
- The publishing industry, ebooks, or the practice of publishing
- Reviews: Books that have shaped my thinking
- Science fiction
- Travel writing
Top blog, Medium, and LinkedIn posts
Over the past few years, I've been thinking a lot about platform economics, the lessons of AI, and the distorted financial incentives of Silicon Valley, and how these three ideas are deeply connected. Essays like The Fundamental Problem With Silicon Valley's Favorite Growth Strategy, Antitrust Regulators Are Using the Wrong Tools to Break Up Big Tech, We Have Already Let the Genie Out of the Bottle, and The End of Silicon Valley As We Know It, should probably be read in series, since they are in some sense a rough draft of a future book about antitrust, ecosystems, and big tech.
Leading up to the publication of my book WTF?, a lot of my writing and speaking was about technology and the future of work - what I've sometimes called the Next:Economy. I posted many of these essays to Medium in a publication I curated called The WTF Economy. Many of them also appear on oreilly.com and LinkedIn. Some of the key posts (in reverse chronological order) include Do More: What Amazon Teaches Us About AI and the "Jobless Future", Wall Street Made Me Do It, This is Strictly a Business Decision, Don't Replace People, Augment Them, Machine Money and People Money, What Paul Graham is Missing About Inequality, We've Got This Whole Unicorn Thing Wrong, Workers in a World of Continuous Partial Employment, and Networks and the Nature of the Firm.
Additional relevant posts on this topic published elsewhere include Uber's Scandal Provides a Chance to Remake Silicon Valley (Wired) and Managing the Bots That Are Managing the Business (MIT Sloan Management Review).
Some other key posts I've written over the years that have stood the test of time include Work on Stuff that Matters: First Principles, Piracy is Progressive Taxation, Pascal's Wager and Climate Change, Government as a Platform, and Open Data and Algorithmic Regulation.
Many other articles, interviews, and talks of historical interest are collected in the thematic sections below. Most notable are The Open Source Paradigm Shift, What is Web 2.0?, and Web Squared: Web 2.0 Five Years On.