Business Forecasting

State of the Art

We are about to embark on a journey through the last five years of business forecasting literature, with over 60 selections from journals, books, whitepapers, and original contributions written just for this collection. The biggest single topic area – reflecting the intense interest from practitioners and researchers alike – is the role of artificial intelligence and machine learning in business forecasting. But traditional forecasting topics like modeling, performance evaluation, and process remain vital, and are not ignored. We've sought to include the compelling new ideas, and the divergent viewpoints, to broadly represent advances in the business forecasting profession over the past five years.

But before we begin the journey, it is worth a few moments to review and reflect upon where we are at now – business forecasting's state of the art.

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FORECASTING IN SOCIAL SETTINGS: THE STATE OF THE ART*

Spyros Makridakis, Rob J. Hyndman, and Fotios Petropoulos

This paper provides a nonsystematic review of the progress of forecasting in social (i.e., non-physical science) settings – which includes business forecasting. It is aimed at someone outside the field who wants to understand and appreciate the results of 2018's M4 Competition, and the M4's historical context and significance. As such, it forms a survey paper regarding the state of the art of the business forecasting discipline, and provides a perfect launch point for the chapters to follow.

The ...