Data and Democracy

Prologue: The Role of Data in Campaigns

Andrew Therriault

Andrew Therriault was the Democratic National Committee’s Director of Data Science from 2014 to 2016, leading a team that developed voter targeting models and other analytic tools used by thousands of Democratic campaigns.

Watching news coverage of the 2016 presidential race, it’s easy to imagine that this year’s election is unlike any other that’s come before. Behind the scenes, though, this year’s campaigns are continuing a trend that has been underway for more than a decade. Modern campaigns in the US have become more reliant on data with each election cycle, using analytics to drive everything from overall strategy and messaging to individual voter contacts and advertising. This evolution was well documented in the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns, and in 2016, the technology has spread to “downballot” campaigns for state and local offices that never before had access to such sophisticated tools.

At the same time, a data-driven mindset is also shaping how campaigns are covered in the media. To bring sanity to the deluge of often-conflicting poll numbers, survey aggregators use forecast models to combine results and produce a clearer estimate of where each contest stands. And by digging deeper into filings that record how money flows through each campaign, investigative journalists can better understand what’s going on both within the campaign and across the electorate.

This compilation brings together leading ...