book

Debunkery: Learn It, Do It, and Profit From It—Seeing Through Wall Street's Money-Killing Myths

by Lara Hoffmans, Ken Fisher

October 2010

Intermediate to advanced

259 pages

5h 50m

English

Wiley

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Reduce Your Error Rate . . . If You CanDebunkery 101Standing Convention on Its HeadMisperceptions on Parade
Bonds Can Be Negative, TooGiven Just a Bit of TimeInflation’s Bite
Are You So Sure Stocks Are the Problem?Investing Is a Probabilities Game
Longer Lives, Longer Time HorizonsAged Poverty Is Cruel!
Is Age All That Matters?Determining Your Benchmark—Three Things

Normal Returns Are Extreme
True Capital Preservation as a Goal Is Very Rare
Selective Memory and Other Messy BiasesLosses Feel Worse Than Gains Feel Good
Big Bear Markets Mean a Big Bull BounceFooled by Averages
A Classic V
Chasing HeatSupply and Demand (and Investment Bankers)
Heed These Five SignsCustody Is the Number One Sign
How Do They “Work”?Pick a Level, Any Level
Covered Calls Are Just Like Naked Puts?
DCA—A Fee Bonanza
Two Basic TypesBig Fees and Tax Trauma
The First PitchThe Second Pitch
Passive Is (NOT) EasyIf Passive Were Easy, People Would Do ItOther People Are Like That! Not Me . . .
“Cheap” Can Be Relative
Past Performance Is Never Indicative of Future ResultsCategories That Fall Most Bounce Most
Long-Distant Future SupplyMeager Assumptions
Coincident Plus Relative Equal UselessUseless . . . But Also Inconsistent!
Confidence Is CoincidentNot Contrarian Either. Just Useless.
What’s So Wrong With the Dow?Price-Weighted InsanityStock Splits and Splitting Headaches
Cognitive Errors GaloreCheck the Box
Sell in May . . . When? And Then What?
Fear of HeightsTwo Moving Parts to a P/E
Dollar DilemmaPut the Dollar in a BoxWhere’s the Zigzag?
A Monetary PhenomenonExit Jitters
Homegrown Dividends
The Silent Killer
Boomers Have a Long Time HorizonBankrupting Social SecurityCan’t Stop Capital Markets
Taking Stock in Your EmployerThe Road More TraveledNuts and Bolts and Insider TradingNot Gone, Just Down Big
If Everyone Believes It, Ask If It’s TrueStupid Government Debt and Velocity
Unemployment Up, Stocks Up Too?Dropping Unemployment Lags the Economy
Booms and Busts—But Mostly BustsTiming Pros Only, Please
Cap Gains—A Tax on Selling?Cap Gains Changes and ImpactsIt’s Only Half the Issue
A Dollar Spent Is a Dollar SpentLong Term—No CorrelationShort-Lived CorrelationSupply and Demand
No Fear of Swine (or Any Other) Flu
The Big Decline Wasn’t ConsumersConsumer Spending Is Stable
Predictable Patterns and Fundamental DriversLazy Legislators Mean Happy Markets
Party Can Matter—At Certain TimesA Perverse Inverse
Scary Scaling
US and Non-US Stocks—More Correlated Than You Think
US and Non-US Trade Leadership—IrregularlyOpportunities to Manage Risk
A Long History of Big DebtBigger Debt Abroad!
Low Interest Rates Lower Costs
Investors Don’t Invest Out of Charity
You Are Your Own Trade DeficitScale It to See ItWhich Country Would You Rather Be?
Stocks Move First—Up or DownHuge Growth—Wildly Variable Returns
Markets Globally Are ResilientHistory Shows Stocks Don’t Scare

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ISBN: 9780470285350Purchase book