Forecasting Air Travel Demand

7   A medium-term demand forecasting method based on stochastic frontier analysis and model average

This chapter raises the research topic of unconstrained demand estimation and forecasting. Unconstrained demand forecasting is often difficult due to the unobservability of the applicable historical demand series. In this chapter, we propose a demand forecasting method based on the stochastic frontier analysis method and a model average technique. An empirical application of the medium-term air travel demand forecasting is implemented. The results of a forecasting performance comparison show that in addition to its ability to estimate unconstrained demand, our method outperforms other common forecasting methods in terms of forecasting passenger ...