Forecasting With The Theta Method

Index

• a
• AR(1)  50, 62–64
• Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)  5, 41, 42, 64, 171

• b
• Benchmark  61, 62
• Bivariate  5, 51–54

• d
• Direction  75, 116

• e
• Error  5–6, 13, 37, 46
• Error metric  61
• Exponential smoothing  15, 118, 170
• Extrapolation  7, 9, 10

• m
• Mean absolute error (MAE)  61–62
• Multivariate  5, 51

• p
• Percentage error  164

• r
• Regression  8, 11, 15
• Root mean‐squared error (RMSE)  61
• Rolling evaluation  61
• Rolling window  61

• s
• Sign success ratio (SSR)  62
• Simple exponential smoothing (SES)  9
• Smoothing  37

• t
• Theta lines  8
• Theta method  4, 5, 7–10, 163, 166–175
• Theta model  10–12
• Theta parameter  7, 168
• Trend  37–39, 50