Machine Learning with R - Fourth Edition

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Probabilistic Learning – Classification Using Naive Bayes

When a meteorologist provides a weather forecast, precipitation is typically described with phrases like “70 percent chance of rain.” Such forecasts are known as probability of precipitation reports. Have you ever considered how they are calculated? It is a puzzling question because, in reality, it will either rain or not with absolute certainty.

Weather estimates are based on probabilistic methods, which are those concerned with describing uncertainty. They use data on past events to extrapolate future events. In the case of the weather, the chance of rain describes the proportion of prior days with similar atmospheric conditions on which precipitation occurred. A 70 percent chance ...