Practical Doomsday

1 A Method to the Madness

We seem to be wired to think about risk in a particular way: we instinctively zero in on dangers that are unusual or immediate, while paying much less attention to hazards that unfold more slowly or in a more familiar way.

To give just one example, American public discourse—and our personal anxieties—tend to dwell on the threat of terrorism. The data on this particular risk is somewhat elusive, but by most estimates, fewer than 50 people are killed in terrorist incidents on American soil in a typical year.¹ In contrast, approximately 65,000 annual deaths occur in the United States from unintentional poisonings, ...