Quantitative Tools of Project Management

CHAPTER 4

Probabilistic Scheduling Models

Key points:

• Activity durations usually involve high levels of uncertainty.
• Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) assumes a particular form of duration distribution.
• Monte Carlo simulation is a much better approach, allowing any duration distribution.

In the last chapter, critical path models were discussed. The critical path method has been useful in project management planning and control. But it is widely recognized that the assumed durations of activities very often turn out to be different from those assumed in the planning stage. In this chapter, we will look at two types of project scheduling models that consider some of the uncertainty involved in project management. The Program Evaluation ...