Seeing the Future

Index

adaptive smoothing, 60

add-in tools of Excel, 15–16

adjustments, 5

based on error evaluations, 51–52

Excel applications, 53–55

holdout-sample evaluations and, 55–56

arbitrage pricing theory (APT) model, 182–183

Aristotle, 243

associative analyses, 6, 86, 158, 173

autocorrelation, 100–101, 103–104, 107–108, 110–111, 127

autoregressive (AR) models, 244

concept, 158–160

Excel applications, 168–169

interval forecasts, 162–163

point forecasts, 160–161

standard error of the regression, 162–163

autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, 158, 244

concept, 163–164

Excel applications, 166–167

testing for stationarity, 164–166

average consumer expectations for business conditions, 225

average forecast value, 59

average seasonal index ...