Chapter Nine

FINDING GOLD WITHTHEORY-FOCUSED PLANNING

IN A FLUID, fast-changing, uncertain environment, planning might seem fruitless. But planning is crucial for strategic experiments because it establishes the context for learning.1 In past chapters, we explained why the conventional planning process is inappropriate. Discovery driven planning underestimates the magnitude of the uncertainties, and the venture capital approach is too simplistic. So what works?

Based on the discussion of learning disabilities, you know some of the characteristics of a desirable planning approach. It must be simple enough that managers can iterate through the planning cycle, reassessing theories and predictions, as often as monthly. And it must focus on trends. ...

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