Trading Systems and Methods, + Website, 5th Edition

CHAPTER 1

Introduction

It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change.

—Charles Darwin

Let’s start by redefining the term technical analysis. Technical analysis is the systematic evaluation of price, volume, breadth, and open interest, for the purpose of price forecasting. A systematic approach may simply use a bar chart and a ruler, or it may use all the calculation power available. Technical analysis may include any quantitative analysis as well as all forms of pattern recognition. Its objective is to decide, in advance, where prices will go over some time period, whether 1 hour, 1 day, or 5 years. Technical analysis must have clear and complete rules.

Technical analysis is no longer just the study of chart patterns or the identification of trends. It encompasses intramarket analysis, complex indicators, mean reversion, and the evaluation of test results. It can use a simple moving average or a neural network to forecast price moves. This book serves as a reference guide for all of these techniques, puts them in some order, and explains the functional similarities and differences for the purpose of trading. It includes some aspects of portfolio construction and multilevel risk control, which are integral parts of successful trading.

THE EXPANDING ROLE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Quantitative methods for evaluating price movement and making trading decisions have become a dominant part of market analysis. Those ...