A few thoughts about economics, economists, and this book:
One: While outlier theories are more interesting, the consensus view is more accurate.
If you take the forecasts of a group of competent professional economists and somehow combine their forecasts, that combined forecast will, over time, be more accurate than any single one of the forecasts. Blue Chip, probably the most prominent of the consensus forecasts, combines dozens of individual forecasts. The outlooks of each of the twelve Federal Reserve regional banks and the Board of Governors are combined into the Fed’s quarterly economic projections. The point is: If you try to do economic forecasting, it is very hard to beat the consensus.
Two: The strength of the consensus forecast ...
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