Better Business Decisions from Data

CHAPTER 17

Extrapolation

Malthus Got It Wrong

Thomas Malthus, an English cleric, economist, and statistician, is known for his theories on population growth. He wrote in 1798 in his Essay on the Principle of Population that, because population increases geometrically (1, 2, 4, 8, …) and food increases arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4, …), the population would eventually outstrip food supply. He warned of premature death visiting the human race. The onset of disaster would be prevented only by epidemics, pestilence, plague, famine, and preventive measures. His numerous writings on the subject gave rise to the Malthusian doctrine.

This doctrine is based on an extrapolation; and because it was proposed a long time ago, we can see that it was unjustified. ...