November 2020
Intermediate to advanced
256 pages
8h 12m
English
book
Beyond Diversification: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Asset Allocation
by Sebastien Page
Content preview from Beyond Diversification: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Asset Allocation
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3
Shorter-Term Valuation Signals and Something About Coffee and Egg Yolks
Financial analysis relies mostly on historical data. But our goal is to make decisions that will have repercussions in the future.
—JPP
SO FAR, WE’VE FOCUSED ON RELATIVELY LONG-TERM return forecasts, or “capital markets assumptions.” These types of forecasts are useful for strategic asset allocation. Also, we saw that we can apply the equity building block model at shorter horizons, as in the equity country allocation model we discussed.
Let us now focus on shorter-term return forecasts. What are the most relevant predictive factors of returns for tactical asset allocation (TAA)? There are many macroeconomic, fundamental, and valuation signals that we can use. The key ...
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