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Thoughts on Return Forecasting and Something About the Feelings of Electrons
Some will find that finance is not easy. We don’t know the outcomes in advance. The information we use is always incomplete, and we can’t control the variables. Still, we must make decisions because, often, the absence of decision is worse.
—JPP
A FEW YEARS AGO, I WAS IN A MEETING WITH SEVERAL senior investors when I put my foot in my mouth. I was the newbie in the room—I had just joined the firm. The topic of discussion was our long-term return forecasts. We wanted to build a new set of capital markets assumptions, to be used in solutions studies. The goal of these studies was to advise institutional investors on their strategic asset allocation decisions.
As the ...
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