APPENDIX 8A

Deriving ERP Estimates1

REALIZED RISK PREMIUM (EX POST) APPROACH

Here we discuss in detail the following issues in applying the realized risk premium approach:

  • What risk-free rate should be used to measure the realized premiums?
  • What period should be used as the sample period?
  • Should returns be measured over one-year holding periods or over longer holding periods?
  • Is the arithmetic average or geometric average the more accurate method of summarizing realized return data over the sample period?

Measuring Realized Risk Premiums

The measure of the risk-free rate has generally not been controversial once the proper duration (long-term versus short-term) of the investment has been estimated, since the expected yield to maturity on appropriate U.S. government securities ...

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