Data Science Bookcamp

4 Case study 1 solution

This section covers

• Card game simulations
• Probabilistic strategy optimization
• Confidence intervals

Our aim is to play a card game in which the cards are iteratively flipped until we tell the dealer to stop. Then one additional card is flipped. If that card is red, we win a dollar; otherwise, we lose a dollar. Our goal is to discover a strategy that best predicts a red card in the deck. We will do so by

1. Developing multiple strategies for predicting red cards in a randomly shuffled deck.

2. Applying each strategy across multiple simulations to compute its probability of success within a high confidence interval. If these computations prove to be intractable, we will instead focus on those strategies that perform best ...