August 2009
Beginner
308 pages
6h 50m
English
Content preview from Fundamentals of Enterprise Risk ManagementBecome an O’Reilly member and get unlimited access to this title plus top books and audiobooks from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers, thousands of courses curated by job role, 150+ live events each month,
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CHAPTER 4CHALLENGE OF THE BLACK SWAN
RISK QUOTE: The world is getting to be such a dangerous place, a man is lucky to get out of it alive.
—W.C. FIELDS, COMEDIAN AND MOVIE STAR
RISK QUOTE: A lie can run around the world six times while the truth is still trying to put on its pants.
—MARK TWAIN, HUMORIST AND WRITER
Nassim Taleb, in his book The Black Swan (Random House, 2007), identifies a “black swan” as an event that meets three conditions. It is an outlier risk, a potential loss found outside the realm of normal expectations based on people’s understanding of the world. It has an extreme impact, presenting the possibility of great danger or change in its consequences to individuals, organizations, or societies. It is not predictable in advance ...
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