Guide to Decision Making: Getting it More Right than Wrong

Acknowledgements

THERE ARE MANY PEOPLE who in their different ways have helped me in writing this book and who I would like to thank. I am grateful to the provost of Gresham College, Sir Roderick Floud, for the invitation to speak on aspects of what is in the book and to Barbara Anderson for delivering the lecture when a flash flood prevented me from leaving home. Similar thanks are due to Karen Carr, professor of human systems at Cranfield University, for invitations to lecture at the Defence Academy in Shrivenham. Lord Clifton of Rathmore was kind enough to share his observations on the global financial crisis and its aftermath; William Tankard of GFMS, a precious metals consultancy, helped me with information on gold production; Leslie Willcocks, professor of technology work and globalisation at the London School of Economics, provided statistics on re-contracting; and John Gapper was most illuminating on rogue traders.

Colleagues on the Defence Scientific Advisory Council have been a source of inspiration and insight. I particularly thank Sir Peter Knight for his insights into how scientists think, Scott Steadman for informal discussion on what makes a good engineer and allusions to “feeling the metal” that informs part of Chapter 4, and Ian Poll, professor of aerospace engineering at Cranfield University, for his observations on planning. Thanks are also due to Major General Alan Macklin for sharing his insights into the art of management.

Without the influence of Rear-Admiral ...