The Value of Judgment

Having better prediction raises the value of judgment. After all, it doesn’t help to know the likelihood of rain if you don’t know how much you like staying dry or how much you hate carrying an umbrella.

Prediction machines don’t provide judgment. Only humans do, because only humans can express the relative rewards from taking different actions. As AI takes over prediction, humans will do less of the combined prediction-judgment routine of decision making and focus more on the judgment role alone. This will enable an interactive interface between machine prediction and human judgment, much the same way that you run alternative queries when interacting with a spreadsheet or database.

With better prediction come more opportunities ...

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