Chapter 1
Seeing Probability in Everyday Life
IN THIS CHAPTER
Understanding the definition of probability
Calculating some probabilities
Becoming aware of probability misconceptions
Probability is part of our everyday lives, from checking the weather and deciding what to wear to looking at the stock market and making predictions to seeing something strange happen and saying, “What are the odds of that?” In this chapter, you explore the ways probability appears in everyday life and learn some important terms you’ll encounter throughout the rest of the book.
Understanding What Probability Means
Probability is a word that is used all the time, but it has a specific meaning in the statistics and probability world. First, you start with a random event, such as flipping a coin. Then you have the outcome, or results, of each flip: heads (H) or tails (T). The sample space (S) is the set of all possible outcomes of the random event. Then you have an event that is a certain result — or subset of results — in S, and these results are labeled with capital letters like A, B, C, and so on. And the probability of that event is noted by P(A), which is read “P of A.” For example, if you flip ...
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