Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems

34 Human‐Centered Design of Model‐Based Decision Support for Policy and Investment Decisions

William B. Rouse

Alexander Crombie Humphreys Chair, School of Systems and Enterprises, Stevens Institute of Technology, Center for Complex Systems and Enterprises, Hoboken, NJ, 07030, USA

Introduction

We use models to answer questions and solve problems. Often these problems involve designing solutions in terms of physical form, functional capabilities, and policies intended to enable, incentivize, or inhibit particular behaviors. The key point is that models are intended to support problem‐solving including broad problems, such as “How does this system work? What is going on?”

In other words, models are not ends in themselves. Instead, they are a means for addressing the ends of problem‐solving. Thus, not only do we want models to be scientifically and technically valid. We want them to be an acceptable means to the problem solvers of interest. We also want them to be viable in terms of being worth the effort to learn and employ in problem‐solving.

It is useful to distinguish between two very different types of overarching questions. Understanding the nature of problems often involves assessing what is. This is the realm of, among other things, big data. In contrast, solving problems often also involves asking “what if” and “under what conditions?” (Davis 2019). Addressing these questions typically involves exploring possibilities that have never been tried before. Visualization ...