February 2006
Beginner to intermediate
352 pages
9h 23m
English
Content preview from Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black ArtBecome an O’Reilly member and get unlimited access to this title plus top books and audiobooks from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers, thousands of courses curated by job role, 150+ live events each month,
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Chapter 3. Value of Accurate Estimates
[The common definition of estimate is] “the most optimistic prediction that has a non-zero probability of coming true.” ... Accepting this definition leads irrevocably toward a method called what’s-the-earliest-date-by-which-you-can’t-prove-you-won’t-be-finished estimating.
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The inaccuracy of software project estimates—as muddied by unrealistic targets and unachievable commitments—has been a problem for many years. In the 1970s, Fred Brooks pointed out that “more software projects have gone awry for lack of calendar time than all other causes combined” (Brooks 1975). A decade later, Scott Costello observed that “deadline pressure is the single greatest enemy of software engineering” (Costello 1984). ...
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