Statistical Rethinking

Preface

Masons, when they start upon a building,

Are careful to test out the scaffolding;

Make sure that planks won't slip at busy points,

Secure all ladders, tighten bolted joints.

And yet all this comes down when the job's done

Showing off walls of sure and solid stone.

So if, my dear, there sometimes seem to be

Old bridges breaking between you and me

Never fear. We may let the scaffolds fall

Confident that we have built our wall.

(“Scaffolding” by Seamus Heaney, 1939–2013)

This book means to help you raise your knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. It is meant as a scaffold, one that will allow you to construct the wall that you need, even though you will discard it afterwards. As a result, this book teaches the material in ...