The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty

About the Author

Sam L. Savage is a consulting professor in Stanford University’s School of Engineering and a fellow of the Judge Business School at Cambridge University.

He received a PhD in the area of computational complexity from Yale University in 1973, spent a year at General Motors Research Laboratory, and then joined the management science faculty of the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business. Here he quickly realized that an algebraic curtain separated management from management science, and he abandoned the field as moribund. Then a decade later, with the advent of the personal computer and electronic spreadsheet, the algebraic curtain began to fall, and Sam was reborn as a management scientist. In 1985, he collaborated on the first widely marketed spreadsheet optimization package, What’sBest!^®, which won PC Magazine’s Technical Excellence Award. In 1990 Sam came to Stanford, where he continues to teach and develop management science tools in an algebra-free environment.

His primary research focus is on enterprisewide communication and management of uncertainty and risk. In 2006, in collaboration with Stefan Scholtes (of Cambridge University) and Daniel Zweidler (then of Shell and now with Merck & Co.), Dr. Savage formalized the foundations of Probability Management and is the chairman of ProbabilityManagement.org. Recently he led a consortium that included Frontline Systems, Oracle Corp., and SAS Institute in the development of the DIST™ Distribution String, ...