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The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty by Sam L. Savage

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Notes

Preface

1 A. F. M. Smith, The Writings of Leonard Jimmie Savage—A Memorial Collection (Washington, DC: American Statistical Association and The Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 1981), p. 29.
2 Ibid., p. 14.
3 Sam L. Savage, “The Flaw of Averages,” Soapbox column, San Jose Mercury News, October 8, 2000.

Introduction: Connecting the Seat of the Intellect to the Seat of the Pants

1 “Daniel Kahnemann: The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2002,” Nobelprize.org, http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2002/kahneman-lecture.html
2 Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky, and Paul Slovic (Eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1982).
3 Malcom Gladwell, Blink—The Power of Thinking Without Thinking (Boston: Little Brown and Company, 2005).

Chapter 1: The Flaw of Averages

1 Sam L. Savage, “The Flaw of Averages,” Soapbox column, San Jose Mercury News, October 8, 2000.
2 Sam L. Savage, “The Flaw of Averages,” Harvard Business Review, November 2002, pp. 20-21.
3 Patrick Leach, Why Can’t You Just Give Me the Number? (Gainesville, FL: Probabilistic Publishing, 2006).
4 “S&P/Case-ShillerHomePriceIndices,”Standard&Poor’s,”http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2, 1,0,0,0,0,0.html
5 Benita D. Newton (staff writer), “All-You-Can-Eat Was Too Much,” St. Petersburg Times, September 26, 2003.
6 William K. Stevens, “When Scientific Predictions ...

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