The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty

Notes

Preface

1 A. F. M. Smith, The Writings of Leonard Jimmie Savage—A Memorial Collection (Washington, DC: American Statistical Association and The Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 1981), p. 29.

2 Ibid., p. 14.

3 Sam L. Savage, “The Flaw of Averages,” Soapbox column, San Jose Mercury News, October 8, 2000.

Introduction: Connecting the Seat of the Intellect to the Seat of the Pants

1 “Daniel Kahnemann: The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2002,” Nobelprize.org, http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2002/kahneman-lecture.html

2 Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky, and Paul Slovic (Eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1982).

3 Malcom Gladwell, Blink—The Power of Thinking Without Thinking (Boston: Little Brown and Company, 2005).

Chapter 1: The Flaw of Averages

1 Sam L. Savage, “The Flaw of Averages,” Soapbox column, San Jose Mercury News, October 8, 2000.

2 Sam L. Savage, “The Flaw of Averages,” Harvard Business Review, November 2002, pp. 20-21.

3 Patrick Leach, Why Can’t You Just Give Me the Number? (Gainesville, FL: Probabilistic Publishing, 2006).

4 “S&P/Case-ShillerHomePriceIndices,”Standard&Poor’s,”http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2, 1,0,0,0,0,0.html

5 Benita D. Newton (staff writer), “All-You-Can-Eat Was Too Much,” St. Petersburg Times, September 26, 2003.

6 William K. Stevens, “When Scientific Predictions ...