The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty

PART 2

FIVE BASIC MINDLES FOR UNCERTAINTY

The single biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place.

—George Bernard Shaw, Irish playwright, 1856-1950

 

 

And so it is with the typical course in probability and statistics. The subject is usually presented using classical theories, which like the steam locomotive are powerful and elegant, were developed around the same time, and are just as obsolete. This section attempts a different approach.

Just as a handle helps you grasp something with your hand, I define a Mindle (first syllable rhymes with “mind”) as the analogous concept for the mind. In this section I will present five fundamental Mindles for grasping various aspects of uncertainty.

Although you may have been exposed to these concepts in the past, they were likely cloaked in Steam Era anachronisms such as VARIANCE or STANDARD DEVIATION. I refer to such technical terms as Red Words, and they appear in their own DISTINCTIVE FONT. I discourage their use but will refer to them occasionally nonetheless to connect something I write in plain English (Green Words) to something you might have heard in a distant class.

If you achieve a seat of the pants understanding of this section, people will no longer be able to threaten you by blowing smoke with Red Words. To assist you further in this regard, there is a summary of the basic Mindles in Table P2.1 and a Red Word glossary at the back of the book.

TABLE P2.1 Five Basic Mindles for Grasping Uncertainly