This Ain’t Your Daddy’s Economic Slowdown
This is not the recession of the late 1970s and early 1980s. What we tend to think of when we hear the term “economic slowdown” is not what we are about to get. This one is going to be bigger, badder, deeper, and last much longer than anything we’ve seen before. To understand how this will impact jobs, it helps to think of the U.S. economy in three parts:
1. The Capital Goods Sector—cars, construction, major industrial equipment, and so forth
2. The Discretionary Spending Sector—fine dining, entertainment, travel, high fashion, jewelry, art, and so forth
3. The Necessities Sector—basic food, shelter, clothing, energy, health care, and so forth
Typically under normal conditions in an economic downturn, we can expect to see the Capital Goods Sector slow significantly, the Discretionary Spending Sector decline somewhat, and the Necessities Sector to be mostly spared. By this point, you’ve probably guessed that conditions during and after the bubbles collapse will be anything but normal. If you hope your job or business survives the current Bubblequake and coming Aftershock, or you’d like to gear up for a change, the following insights may shed some light on what to expect in each of the three economic sectors.
Keep in mind that all three sectors will suffer significant job and business losses, with the Capital Goods and Discretionary Spending sectors performing worst, and the Necessities Sector faring better but not much. Conversely, all ...