Damodaran on Valuation

1.1. A PHILOSOPHICAL BASIS FOR VALUATION

A postulate of sound investing is that an investor does not pay more for an asset than it is worth. This statement may seem logical and obvious, but it is forgotten and rediscovered at some time in every generation and in every market. There are those who are disingenuous enough to argue that value is in the eyes of the beholder, and that any price can be justified if there are other investors willing to pay that price. That is patently absurd. Perceptions may be all that matter when the asset is a painting or a sculpture, but we do not and should not buy most assets for aesthetic or emotional reasons; we buy financial assets for the cash flows we expect to receive from them. Consequently, perceptions of value have to be backed up by reality, which implies that the price we pay for any asset should reflect the cash flows it is expected to generate. The models of valuation described in this book attempt to relate value to the level of, uncertainty about, and expected growth in these cash flows.

There are many aspects of valuation where we can agree to disagree, including estimates of true value and how long it will take for prices to adjust to that true value. But there is one point on which there can be no disagreement. Asset prices cannot be justified by merely using the argument that there will be other investors around who will pay a higher price in the future. That is the equivalent of playing a very expensive game of musical chairs, ...