Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 6th Edition

Index

• absence of redundancy in value tree 43
• across criteria weights 349
• addition rule of probability 106
• additive value model 58–9, 95
• affect heuristic 28
• aggregation of group judgments 315–25
• algorithm aversion 459
• Allais’s paradox 147–8, 376
• analytic hierarchy process (AHP) 7, 9, 81–94
  • axioms 90–1
  • examples of applications 6–7, 9
  • strengths and limitations 91–4
  • using hand calculations 87–9
• anchoring and adjustment heuristic 262–5, 383, 389
• Arrow’s impossibility theorem 322
• artificial intelligence
  • as an antidote to cognitive inertia 384
  • general 460
  • to identify attributes 42
  • to identify options 40
  • limitations 458–60
  • role of in decision making 457–460
  • trust in 458–9
  • uniqueness neglect 459
  • weak or narrow 460
• Asian disease problem 145, 374–6
• asymmetric dominance effect 25
• attribute
  • attribute salience effect 27
  • definition of 38
  • proxy 38
• availability heuristic 255–6, 296
• axioms 4, 38
  • of AHP 90–1
  • of probability theory 117–8
  • of SMART 56–7, 60
  • of utility 140–3

 

• base rates 257–8
• Bayes’ theorem 227–33, 382
• biases. see also Chapter 10
  • confirmation bias 326, 334, 383–4
  • hindsight bias 285
• bisection method 47–9
• bolstering 386, 390, 420
• bootstrapping 445–9, 450
• bounded rationality 16
• brainstorming 309–10
• Brier score 295–6
• broken leg cues 448
• buck passing 386

 

• calibration 294–5
• certainty equivalence method 143–5
• chance node 130, 167
• citation bias 270–1
• classical approach to probability 102–3
• cognitive inertia 380–2
• coherence in probability assessment 292–3
• commons dilemma ...