Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 6th Edition

Preface

In an increasingly complex and uncertain world, decision analysis can have a significant role to play in helping decision-makers gain a greater understanding of the problems they face. The main aim of this book is to make decision analysis accessible to its largest group of potential users: managers and administrators in business and public-sector organizations, most of whom, although expert at their work, are not mathematicians or statisticians. We have therefore endeavored to write a book which makes the methodology of decision analysis as ‘transparent’ as possible so that little has to be ‘taken on trust’ while at the same time making the minimum use of mathematical symbols and concepts. There is a chapter introducing the ideas of probability for those with little or no background knowledge in this area.

The primary focus of the book is on practical management problems, but we have also considered theoretical issues where we feel that they are needed for readers to understand the scope and applicability of a particular technique. Many decision problems today are complicated by the need to consider a range of issues, such as those relating to the environment, and by the participation of divergent interest groups. To reflect this, we have included extensive coverage of problems involving multiple objectives and methods designed to assist groups of decision-makers in tackling decision problems. An essential feature of the book is how it integrates the quantitative and ...