Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 6th Edition

1Introduction

Complex decisions

Imagine you are facing the following problem. You have been employed as a manager by a major industrial company for several years, but recently, you have become dissatisfied with the job. You are still interested in the nature of the work, and most of your colleagues have a high regard for you. However, company politics are getting you down, and there appears to be little prospect of promotion in the foreseeable future. Moreover, the amount of work you are being asked to do seems to be increasing relentlessly, and you often have to work late in the evenings and at weekends.

You mentioned this to an old friend at a dinner party. ‘There’s an obvious solution,’ he says. ‘Why don’t you set up on your own as a consultant? Hundreds of companies could use your experience and skills, and they would pay well. I’m certain that you’d experience a significant increase in your income and there would be other advantages as well. You’d be your own boss, you could choose to work or take vacations at a time that suited you rather than the company, and you’d gain an enormous amount of satisfaction from solving a variety of challenging problems.’

Initially, you reject your friend’s advice as being out of the question, but the idea becomes more attractive as the days pass. Over the years, you have made a large number of contacts through your existing job, and you feel reasonably confident that you could use them to build a client base. Moreover, besides your specialist ...