Reasoning for Michael's Job DecisionReasoning in More Complex DecisionsThe Relevance Diagram: A Tool for Structuring Complex DecisionsThe Decision Model: A Tool for Analyzing Complex DecisionsThe Tornado Diagram: A Tool for Displaying the Relevance of InformationFlying Bars: A Tool for Displaying Overall UncertaintyThings That Can Go WrongWhen to Get Help with ReasoningThe Power of Iterating from a Simple StartJudging the Quality of ReasoningKey Points to RememberEndnotes