Decisions Over Decimals

Prologue: The Certainty Myth

We want to start by debunking two common myths. The first is the common view that you need to be a math savant to make decisions with data, which deters many people from using data for decision making. This is an erroneous belief. The reality is that making decisions with data is not a choice anymore, its a neccesity. Whether you were top of your class in math or not, you need to make data‐driven decisions. However, having deep math skills is not a core requirement to be a great decision‐maker. This is much like a race car driver who does not need to be a mechanical engineer but is a better driver given awareness of the underlying mechanics. Aptitude and depth in math are quite different from what is truly needed from a business leader—an appreciation for numbers and how they apply to your business.

The second myth is the illusion that, with the abundance of Big Data that surrounds us, we can finally get to the nirvana of making certain decisions—the perfect decision. The challenge in today's world is not the lack of information but the judgment to use it. This goes back to the first myth that you need to be a math whiz to make smart data‐driven decisions. Rather, you need to balance the information with human judgment, experience, and intuition. These ingredients are at the heart of what we call Quantitative Intuition (QI)™.

Consider the following scenario is quite familiar to many of us—the presentation has been going on and on. Slide after slide ...