May 2021
Beginner to intermediate
380 pages
9h 22m
Korean
Content preview from 데이터 과학을 위한 통계(2판)
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185
4
장
회귀와 예측
4.3
회귀를 이용한 예측
데이터 과학에서 회귀의 주된 목적은 예측이다. 기존의 오랫동안 자리 잡은 전통적인 의미의
통계학에서, 회귀는 예측보다는 설명을 위한 모델링에 더 적합했다는 점을 눈여겨볼 필요가
있다.
용어 정리
•
예측구간
prediction
interval
: 개별 예측값 주위의 불확실한 구간
•
외삽법
extrapolation
: 모델링에 사용된 데이터 범위를 벗어난 부분까지 모델을 확장하는 것
4.3.1
외삽의 위험
회귀모형을 데이터 범위를 초과하면서까지 외삽하는 데 사용해서는 안 된다 (시계열 예측을 위
해 회귀를 고려하지 않는다 ). 회귀모형은 충분한 데이터 값이 있는 예측변수에 대해서만 유
효하다 (충분한 데이터가 있다 하더라도 다른 문제가 있을 수 있다.
4
.
6
절 참고). 극단적으
로
model
_
lm
을 가지고
5
,
000
제곱피트의 공터 가격을 예측하는 데 사용한다고 하자. 이때 건
물과 관련된 모든 예측변수의 값은
0
이 되고, 회귀방정식의 결과는 -
521
,
900
+
5
,
000
×
-
0
.
0605
= -
522
,
202
달러라는 황당한 예측 결과가 된다. 왜 이런 일이 일어날까? 데이터에는
건물이 있는 구획만 포함되어 있다. 빈 땅에 해당하는 레코드는 없다. 결과적으로 이 모델에는
공터 가격을 예측하는 방법을 알려줄 정보가 ...
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O’Reilly covers everything we've got, with content to help us build a world-class technology community, upgrade the capabilities and competencies of our teams, and improve overall team performance as well as their engagement.Julian F.
I wanted to learn C and C++, but it didn't click for me until I picked up an O'Reilly book. When I went on the O’Reilly platform, I was astonished to find all the books there, plus live events and sandboxes so you could play around with the technology.Addison B.
I’ve been on the O’Reilly platform for more than eight years. I use a couple of learning platforms, but I'm on O'Reilly more than anybody else. When you're there, you start learning. I'm never disappointed.Amir M.
I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.