Trends, seasonality, cycles, and residualsDifference from standard linear regressionBasic objectives of the analysisTypes of modelsImportant characteristics to consider firstSystematic pattern and random noiseTwo general aspects of time series patternsTrend analysisSmoothingFitting a functionAnalysis of seasonalityAutocorrelation correlogramExamining correlogramsPartial autocorrelationsRemoving serial dependencyARIMACommon processesARIMA methodologyIdentificationEstimation and forecastingThe constant in ARIMA modelsIdentification phaseSeasonal modelsParameter estimationEvaluation of the modelInterrupted time series ARIMAExponential smoothingSimple exponential smoothingIndices of lack of fit (error)