Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment

Chapter 12

Forecasting Solar Irradiance with Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Vincent E. Larson,    Aerisun

Chapter Outline

12.1. Introduction

12.2. Steps Required to Produce a NWP Forecast and Grid Resolution

12.2.1. Determining Atmosphere Initial State and Grid Resolution

12.2.2. Statistical Postprocessing

12.3. Comparison of Model Configurations for Four Operational Models (ECMWF, NAM, GFS, RAP): Spatial and Temporal Coverage, Deep and Shallow Cumulus, Turbulent Transport, Cloud Fraction, Cloud Overlap, Stratiform Microphysics, Aerosol, Shortwave Radiative Transfer

12.4. Possible Sources of Error in Forecasted Irradiance

12.4.1. Noncloudy Scenes

12.4.2. Cloudy Scenes

12.4.3. A Need for Caution

12.5. Present-Day Accuracy of Solar-Irradiance ...