Chapter 12
Forecasting Solar Irradiance with Numerical Weather Prediction Models
Vincent E. Larson, Aerisun
Chapter Outline
12.1. Introduction
12.2. Steps Required to Produce a NWP Forecast and Grid Resolution
12.2.1. Determining Atmosphere Initial State and Grid Resolution
12.2.2. Statistical Postprocessing
12.3. Comparison of Model Configurations for Four Operational Models (ECMWF, NAM, GFS, RAP): Spatial and Temporal Coverage, Deep and Shallow Cumulus, Turbulent Transport, Cloud Fraction, Cloud Overlap, Stratiform Microphysics, Aerosol, Shortwave Radiative Transfer
12.4. Possible Sources of Error in Forecasted Irradiance
12.4.1. Noncloudy Scenes
12.4.2. Cloudy Scenes
12.4.3. A Need for Caution
12.5. Present-Day Accuracy of Solar-Irradiance ...