book

The Decision Intelligence Handbook

by L. Y. Pratt, N. E. Malcolm

June 2023

Intermediate to advanced

267 pages

7h 54m

English

O'Reilly Media, Inc.

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Foreword
Preface
About This BookDecision Intelligence in a NutshellLLMs, OMGWho Is This Book For?What You Will LearnAssumptions This Book MakesContents of This BookConventions Used in This BookUsing Supplemental MaterialsO’Reilly Online LearningHow to Contact UsAcknowledgments
1. Introduction
Do You Need Decision Intelligence?What DI Does for You and Your OrganizationFrom Data to DecisionsThe Decision Complexity CeilingWhat Is DI?Build Your First CDD, Right Now!DI Is About Action-to-Outcome DecisionsDI Is About Human-in-the-Loop DecisionsWhy Data-Driven Decision Makers Need DIWhere DI Comes FromWhat DI Is NotThe DI Maturity ModelThe Shifting Meaning of “Decision Intelligence”Who Is Doing DI Today?The Nine DI ProcessesConclusion
2. Decision Requirements
Decision Requirements (Phase A): OverviewProcess A1: The Decision Objective StatementDecision Objective Statement: Net-Zero Emissions Program Use CaseInterlude: Convening the Decision TeamMaking Decisions at Multiple Organizational LevelsBalancing Information, Authority, and ResponsibilityProcess A2: Decision FramingDecision VerificationWhy Decision Framing Is ImportantFormal Process Description: Process A2, Decision FramingWhen the Decision Frame Is WrongVerifying and Framing: Net-Zero Emissions Program Use CaseTry It Yourself: Decision Requirements for a Telecom Use CaseFraming the DecisionAsking About Outcomes and GoalsCompleting the Decision Framing WorksheetConclusion
3. Decision Modeling: The Decision Design Process
The Decision Modeling Phase: OverviewDecision ElementsDecisions and TimeProcess B1: Decision DesignFormal Process Description: Process B1: Decision DesignDivergent and Convergent ThinkingThe CDD Elicitation MeetingDivergent Thinking: Eliciting Outcomes and ObjectivesCapturing Out-of-Context Decision Elements in a “Parking Lot”Convergent Thinking: Refining (“Cleaning Up”) Outcomes and ObjectivesDivergent Thinking: Eliciting LeversConvergent Thinking: Refining LeversDivergent Thinking: Eliciting Intermediates (Causal Chains)Convergent Thinking: Refining IntermediatesDivergent Thinking: Eliciting ExternalsConvergent Thinking: Refining ExternalsConvergent Thinking: Refining Decision ElementsRefining and Expanding Your CDDLevels of Modeling DetailHow Do You Know When to Stop Decision Modeling?Decision Design Use Case: Governmental Net-Zero ProjectTry It Yourself: Decision Design for a Telecom Use CaseBrainstorming OutcomesBrainstorming LeversWiring Known Dependencies TogetherInitial RefinementIterating On and Publishing the CDDConclusion
4. Decision Modeling: The Decision Asset Investigation Process
Deciding to Go DigitalIntroduction to Process B2: Decision Asset InvestigationFrom Simple to Sophisticated AssetsDocumenting Decision AssetsFormal Process Description: Process B2: Decision Asset InvestigationDecision Asset Investigation: A Sweet Potato CDD Drives Data Gathering and ResearchData for ExternalsThe Puzzle Toy Use Case: The Decision Asset ConversationTry It Yourself: Decision Asset Investigation for the Telecom Use CaseConclusion
5. Decision Reasoning: The Decision Simulation Process
Decision Reasoning: Phase OverviewDecision Simulation Process OverviewWhy Simulate Your CDD?Deciding Whether to Automate Your Decision SimulationDeveloping the Simulation IterativelyFormal Process Description: Decision SimulationCreating a Decision SimulationSimplifying the CDDLever ChoicesExternals and AssumptionsIntermediates and OutcomesDecision Simulation FidelityRunning the Simulation “Backward”: Decision Models for OptimizationTechnology OptionsSimulation Report: Identifying Patterns and Feedback LoopsNet-Zero Emissions Use Case: Simulating the Decision ModelVisualizing Emergent Patterns in the Puzzle Toy Use Case SimulationTry It Yourself: Decision Simulation for the Telecom Use CaseDeciding on a CDD to SimulateDesigning CDD Visual ElementsCoding the DependenciesTesting Your SimulationConclusion
6. Decision Reasoning: The Decision Assessment Process
Introduction to Process C2, Decision AssessmentFormal Process Description: Process C2, Decision AssessmentDecision Assessment LensesBaselineAccuracy of the Model, and of Its PartsBiasSensitivityUncertainty and RiskProvenanceFidelityConsensusTimingTry It Yourself: Decision Assessment for the Telecom Use CaseConclusion
7. Decision Action
Decision Action Phase OverviewProcess D1: Decision MonitoringFormal Process Description: Process D1, Decision MonitoringWhen Is a Monitored Value Wrong Enough to Matter?What to MonitorWhen Do You Need to Revisit Your Decision?Decision Monitoring RecordsSilos, Whack-a-Mole, and the Measurement EffectCase Study: Network Upgrade: When the Decision Is Already Off the RailsTry It Yourself: Decision Monitoring for the Unlimited Usage Plan Use CaseConclusion
8. Decision Review
The Decision Review Phase: OverviewProcess E1: Decision Artifacts RetentionLegal, Regulatory, and Policy IssuesWhen Should Decision Artifacts Retention Begin and End?Formal Process Description: Process E1, Decision Artifacts RetentionTry It Yourself: Decision Artifacts Retention for the Telecom Use CaseProcess E2: Decision RetrospectiveOne-Time Versus Repeated DecisionsMeasuring Decision QualityFormal Process Description: Process E2, Decision RetrospectiveContinuous Decision-Process ImprovementConclusion

Appendix. Framework for How Data Informs Decisions
Index
About the Authors

Content preview from The Decision Intelligence Handbook

Chapter 4. Decision Modeling: The Decision Asset Investigation Process

Are we drowning in data? The world is now creating more than 100 zettabytes (ZB)¹ of data every year, “roughly equivalent to every human generating an entire copy of the Library of Congress each year,” according to Marc Warner in Computer Weekly. But is it really helping us? “If data-driven decision making was right,” Warner adds, “this growth should lead to vastly improved organizational performance.... Has that happened? Clearly not.” What’s going on?

Data can only help us think or do something more efficiently if it’s the right data, in the right form, at the right time. Zettabytes of the wrong data in the wrong form don’t help us meet our objectives; in fact, data can get in the way. This is why so many decision makers routinely say things like, “Please don’t send me any data. I’m simply not interested.”

Decision intelligence fixes this problem by changing your data into a more usable form. The Decision Asset Investigation process (Process B2, illustrated in Figure 4-1) is the first step on the path to building software simulation of the path(s) from actions to outcomes, to help you determine the best actions to take. The CDD serves as a “scaffold” that shows you where data supports that simulation. Decision Asset Investigation starts with your initial CDD and uses it as a guide to your investigation to find multiple assets that can be used to inform evidence-based decision making. In particular, this is ...

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The Decision Intelligence Handbook

by L. Y. Pratt, N. E. Malcolm

Chapter 4. Decision Modeling: The Decision Asset Investigation Process

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