Applying Analytics

4

Uncertainty and Error

4.1 Introduction

Part of being a responsible analyst is communicating how certain you are

of your findings. Analysts use uncertainty and error analysis to accomplish

this task. Why is this an impor tant topic? Put bluntly, people make better

decisions when a finding’s certainty is properly communicated. It’s impossible

to predict the types of decisions that people will base on your analyses, but

there can be money or, more seriously, lives at stake. Good analysis with

appropriate uncertainty co mmunication results in better outcomes.

For example, imagine a decision maker considering two conflicting pieces of

information. How can