June 2013
Beginner
290 pages
10h 35m
English
Content preview from Applying Analytics
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72 Applying Analytics: A Practical Introduction
FIGURE 4.2
The “Assumed model” curve is a simple Gaussian model, which rises slowly
in price. The “Real behavior,” which c ontains a small likelihood of a big drop,
has a very different outcome.
centere d at a positive value just above 0, with a spike at a larger negative
value. The units of inverse dolla rs are present so the pdf will integrate to a
unitless probability. This means that there is a very small chance (0.01% of the
time, or one out of every 10,000 days) that the stock will lose $900. Running
a q uick 1 0,000 day simulation, how does this play out?
Admittedly, this isn’t a re alistic model
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