January 2023
Beginner to intermediate
256 pages
3h 43m
English
Content preview from HBR Guide to Critical Thinking
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CHAPTER 17 Three Ways to Improve Your Decision-Making
by Walter Frick
To make a good decision or solve a difficult problem, you need to have a sense of two things: how different choices change the likelihood of different outcomes and how desirable each of those outcomes is. In other words, decision-making requires both prediction and judgment.
But how do you get better at either? Volumes have been published on this subject, but there are three rules that stand out. Following them will improve your ability to predict the effects of your choices and assess their desirability.
Rule #1: Be Less Certain
Nobel Prize–winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman has said that overconfidence is the bias he’d eliminate first if he had a magic wand.1 It’s ...
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