HBR Guide to Critical Thinking

CHAPTER 21 How to Make Rational Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

by Cheryl Strauss Einhorn

In early 2020, the level of uncertainty in our lives dramatically increased as the world battled a virus that scientists didn’t fully understand; the stock market sank, then soared, then sank again; and the United States faced a contentious presidential election. The future seemed completely unpredictable (instead of merely as unpredictable as it has always had been).

When we feel such heightened uncertainty, our decision-making processes break down. We may become paralyzed and afraid to act, or we may act on the basis of bias, emotion, and intuition instead of logic and facts. It’s uncomfortable, even anxiety-inducing—and it can also lead to ...