International Futures

Book description

International Futures: Building and Using Global Models  extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.

Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.

  • Helps readers understand the IFs system, not at a detailed equation and technical level, but in terms of the important decisions made that dominate the structure and long-term behavior
  • Presents information on the universe of long-term global forecasting systems, key decisions made, and the range of similarities and differences in the systems
  • Covers the relationship between long-term forecasts in a variety of global issues and the forecasting systems and assumptions that underly them (essential information for forecast consumers)

Table of contents

  1. Cover image
  2. Title page
  3. Table of Contents
  4. Copyright
  5. Prologue
  6. Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations
  7. Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases
  8. Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams
  9. Chapter 1: Introduction
    1. Abstract
    2. 1.1 What Path Are We On?
    3. 1.2 What Leverage Do We Have?
    4. 1.3 How Do We Address Uncertainty?
    5. 1.4 The Plan of the Volume
  10. Chapter 2: Building a Global Model: The Toolkit
    1. Abstract
    2. 2.1 Identifying Concepts Individually and in Systems
    3. 2.2 Assembling Data
    4. 2.3 Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions
    5. 2.4 Building Dynamic Formulations: Equations and Much More
    6. 2.5 Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty
    7. 2.6 Assessing and Addressing Model Strengths and Weaknesses
  11. Chapter 3: The Evolution of Global Modeling
    1. Abstract
    2. 3.1 Early Global Modeling With Multiple-Issue, Long-Term Systems
    3. 3.2 Integrated Assessment Models
    4. 3.3 Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use
    5. 3.4 Final Comments on Global Model Evolution and Challenges
  12. Chapter 4: Introducing International Futures
    1. Abstract
    2. 4.1 Structural Overview of IFs
    3. 4.2 The User Interface of IFs
    4. 4.3 Users and Uses of IFs
    5. 4.4 Looking Ahead
  13. Chapter 5: The Future of Human Development
    1. Abstract
    2. 5.1 Population
    3. 5.2 Health
    4. 5.3 Education
    5. 5.4 Human Development in Summary
    6. 5.5 Conclusion
  14. Chapter 6: The Future of Socioeconomic Development
    1. Abstract
    2. 6.1 Economics
    3. 6.2 Government Finance
    4. 6.3 Domestic Governance and the Sociopolitical System
    5. 6.4 International/Global Politics
    6. 6.5 Conclusion
  15. Chapter 7: The Future of Sustainable Development
    1. Abstract
    2. 7.1 Agriculture and Food
    3. 7.2 Energy
    4. 7.3 Infrastructure32
    5. 7.4 Human Impacts on Biophysical Systems: An Introductory Note
    6. 7.5 Climate Change
    7. 7.6 Water Systems
    8. 7.7 Conclusion
  16. Chapter 8: Feedbacks and Disruption: Sources of Uncertainty
    1. Abstract
    2. 8.1 Biophysical System Linkages Back to Human Ones: The Impact of Change
    3. 8.2 Technology
    4. 8.3 Concluding Remarks
  17. Chapter 9: Looking Ahead: Global Models and the IFs System
    1. Abstract
    2. 9.1 Thinking About the Future: Uncertainties
    3. 9.2 Exploring Uncertain Futures: Scenarios
    4. 9.3 Creating Better Futures: Policy Analysis Scenarios
    5. 9.4 Next Steps in Global Modeling—And in the Development of IFs
  18. Index
  19. Author Index

Product information

  • Title: International Futures
  • Author(s): Barry B. Hughes
  • Release date: March 2019
  • Publisher(s): Academic Press
  • ISBN: 9780128134221