Chapter 9

Looking Ahead: Global Models and the IFs System

Abstract

While the modeling of global systems has made huge strides, there remain great uncertainties about global futures. Significantly different perspectives about those futures, often with differential attention to the progress of human development and the challenges of human impacts on the environment, help shape alternative expectations. Scenarios play an important role in explorations of the range of such alternative futures with global models. And as the models have become better, they increasingly facilitate not just the framing of very different futures but the consideration of policy leverage. While there is much enhancement of global modeling that would be helpful and can be expected, ...

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