International Futures

Chapter 2

Building a Global Model: The Toolkit

Abstract

The building of computerized global models in and across issue areas requires conceptual foundations; data plus exploration of historical patterns and relationships; representation of dynamic structures (often with explicit attention to stocks and flows); exploration of model behavior; and careful consideration of major uncertainties and their implications for our understanding of alternative futures. The models inherently build on and extend mental understandings of systems. The enterprise of global modeling has advanced dramatically over the last half century, but it must continue to recognize and address its weaknesses. The scenarios the modelers create and explore will always be possible ...