Judgment and Decision Making

Table of contents

1. Cover
2. Title
3. Copyright
4. Contents
5. List of Figures
6. List of Tables
7. Acknowledgments
8. On the Cover
9. Introduction
10. PART I. BACKGROUND
    1. 1. Judgment and Decision Making
    2. 2. Tversky, Amos (1937–96)
11. PART II. HINDSIGHT BIAS
    1. 3. Hindsight ≠ Foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty
    2. 4. For those Condemned to Study the Past: Reflections on historical judgment
    3. 5. An Early History of Hindsight Research
12. PART III. JUDGMENT
    1. 6. Hypothesis Evaluation from a Bayesian Perspective
    2. 7. Knowing with Certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence
    3. 8. Fault Trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation
    4. 9. Assessing Uncertainty in Physical Constants
    5. 10. Fifty–Fifty = 50%?
13. PART IV. EVALUATION
    1. 11. Predicting Frames
    2. 12. Value Elicitation: Is there anything in there?
    3. 13. Informed Consent for Eliciting Environmental Values
14. PART V. DECIDING
    1. 14. Giving Advice: Decision theory perspectives on sexual assault
    2. 15. The Real World: What good is it?
    3. 16. Assessing Adolescent Decision-Making Competence
    4. 17. Questions of Competence: The duty to inform and the limits to choice
15. Conclusion
16. Index