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HYPOTHESIS EVALUATION FROM A BAYESIAN PERSPECTIVE

Baruch Fischhoff

DECISION RESEARCH, PERCEPTRONICS, INC. EUGENE, OREGON AND MEDICAL RESEARCH COUNCIL APPLIED PSYCHOLOGY UNIT CAMBRIDGE, ENGLAND

Ruth Beyth-Marom

DECISION RESEARCH, PERCEPTRONICS, INC. EUGENE, OREGON

© 1983 THE AMERICAN PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION, INC.

Abstract

Bayesian inference provides a general framework for evaluating hypotheses. It is a normative method in the sense of prescribing how hypotheses should be evaluated. However, it may also be used descriptively by characterizing people’s actual hypothesis-evaluation behavior in terms of its consistency with or departures from the model. Such a characterization may facilitate the development of psychological accounts of how that ...

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