O'Reilly logo

Judgment and Decision Making by Baruch Fischhoff

Stay ahead with the world's most comprehensive technology and business learning platform.

With Safari, you learn the way you learn best. Get unlimited access to videos, live online training, learning paths, books, tutorials, and more.

Start Free Trial

No credit card required

9

ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY IN PHYSICAL CONSTANTS

Max Henrion

CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY, DEPARTMENT OF ENGINEERING AND PUBLIC POLICY, PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA 15213

Baruch Fischhoff

DECISION RESEARCH, A BRANCH OF PERCEPTRONICS, 1201 OAK, EUGENE, OREGON 97401

Abstract

Assessing the uncertainty due to possible systematic errors in a physical measurement unavoidably involves an element of subjective judgment. Examination of historical measurements and recommended values for the fundamental physical constants shows that the reported uncertainties have a consistent bias towards underestimating the actual errors. These findings are comparable to findings of persistent overconfidence in psychological research on the assessment of subjective probability ...

With Safari, you learn the way you learn best. Get unlimited access to videos, live online training, learning paths, books, interactive tutorials, and more.

Start Free Trial

No credit card required