June 2013
Intermediate to advanced
352 pages
12h 28m
English
Content preview from Judgment and Decision MakingBecome an O’Reilly member and get unlimited access to this title plus top books and audiobooks from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers, thousands of courses curated by job role, 150+ live events each month,
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ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY IN PHYSICAL CONSTANTS
CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY, DEPARTMENT OF ENGINEERING AND PUBLIC POLICY, PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA 15213
DECISION RESEARCH, A BRANCH OF PERCEPTRONICS, 1201 OAK, EUGENE, OREGON 97401
Abstract
Assessing the uncertainty due to possible systematic errors in a physical measurement unavoidably involves an element of subjective judgment. Examination of historical measurements and recommended values for the fundamental physical constants shows that the reported uncertainties have a consistent bias towards underestimating the actual errors. These findings are comparable to findings of persistent overconfidence in psychological research on the assessment of subjective probability ...
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