Judgment and Decision Making

11

PREDICTING FRAMES

Baruch Fischhoff

DECISION RESEARCH, A BRANCH OF PERCEPTRONICS, EUGENE, OREGON AND MEDICAL RESEARCH COUNCIL, APPLIED PSYCHOLOGY UNIT, CAMBRIDGE, ENGLAND

© 1983 THE AMERICAN PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION, INC.

Abstract

Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) “prospect theory” has demonstrated that the way in which a decision problem is formulated, or “framed,” can have strong and predictable effects on the perceived attractiveness of the options it offers. At times, the relative attractiveness of two options may be reversed as the result of a reframing that should make no difference at all, according to traditional economic theories of choice. To predict people’s behavior with the theory, one must be able to predict what frame they will ...